Retail Radar Fall 2026 – Material & Peak Season Outlook

As marketing and procurement teams plan upcoming retail programs, shifts in material costs, availability, production capacity and peak-season transportation can affect budgets, timelines and execution.

At IMS, we evaluate these factors as part of the full retail program lifecycle. They rarely move in isolation. Changes in material supply can affect production lead times and sourcing options, while transportation constraints can influence both delivered cost and when programs reach the shelf.

Understanding these connections helps teams determine where conditions are stable, where pressure is building and where action today can create an advantage later.

Here’s what IMS is seeing across key materials and transportation channels—and what those conditions could mean for upcoming retail programs.

POS Paper

WHAT TO KNOW:

Standard paper stocks used for many point-of-sale applications remain readily available. Coated, digital-printable and other specialty stocks may become more constrained as manufacturers adjust production capacity and demand continues to shift toward these materials.

IMPACT TO YOU:

Most programs using standard paper specifications should continue to have sourcing flexibility.

For programs requiring specialty materials, specific coatings, unique finishes or particular print-performance characteristics, earlier material commitments are recommended. This is especially important for large-volume campaigns or programs where the material is integral to the final creative or in-store execution.

Confirming specifications sooner helps preserve more material and supplier options as production approaches.

IMS OUTLOOK & RESPONSE:

Stable to modestly higher costs are expected over the next six months. Standard paper stocks should remain broadly available, while specialty and higher-performance materials may carry greater availability risk.

For programs with specific material requirements, IMS is helping clients identify needs early and secure appropriate supply and production capacity in advance. We can also evaluate alternate paper stocks, suppliers and production approaches that maintain the intended appearance and performance while creating greater flexibility around cost and availability.

Corrugated Packaging & Displays

WHAT TO KNOW:

Corrugated materials used for retail displays, packaging and merchandising applications are expected to remain broadly available, although moderate cost pressure is anticipated over the next six months.

Fiber, energy and transportation costs, along with changes in manufacturing capacity, are contributing to that pressure. The market is also placing greater emphasis on material efficiency—using less material while maintaining the strength and performance required of the finished display.

Standard corrugated options should remain broadly available. Specialized display materials may experience greater variation in availability by supplier, region or application.

IMPACT TO YOU:

Routine applications should remain manageable from an availability standpoint. Large retail rollouts, highly customized displays and programs with compressed timelines should plan for production capacity earlier.

Material price is only one part of the cost equation. The lowest-cost raw material does not necessarily result in the lowest-cost finished display. Structural design, material usage, production efficiency, packaging and transportation all influence total program cost.

For retail programs, the greatest opportunity is often in optimizing the complete solution rather than focusing on a single cost component.

IMS OUTLOOK & RESPONSE:

Approximately 5% material-cost pressure is expected over the next six months, with greater risk associated with specialized display materials and specifications.

IMS is helping clients secure production capacity for major retail programs while qualifying alternate suppliers and material specifications that provide additional flexibility.

We also evaluate total finished-unit cost, including:

• Display construction and material usage
• Alternate materials or specifications
• Qualified supply options
• Packaging and transportation requirements
• Production efficiency and finished performance

The objective is to deliver the most efficient total solution without compromising the intended retail execution.

HIPS & Styrene Sheet

WHAT TO KNOW:

High-impact polystyrene (HIPS) and other styrene sheet materials are commonly used in printed graphics, signage, point-of-purchase displays and formed plastic components.

The current market outlook is favorable. Global supply remains strong relative to demand, limiting manufacturers’ ability to push through significant price increases. Softer underlying raw-material costs are also reducing upward pricing pressure.

IMPACT TO YOU:

Programs using styrene-based materials currently face relatively low risk of significant material-cost inflation.

This creates an opportunity to secure material pricing for upcoming programs, particularly when requirements and volumes are already known.

Material savings will not necessarily translate dollar-for-dollar to the finished program. Printing, fabrication, labor and transportation remain important components of total cost and may offset some of the benefit from lower raw-material pricing.

IMS OUTLOOK & RESPONSE:

Material costs are expected to remain flat or potentially decline by approximately 3–8% over the next six months, absent a significant raw-material, refinery or supply-chain disruption.

IMS is monitoring styrene pricing alongside production, labor and transportation costs to identify opportunities for clients.

For upcoming programs with defined requirements, IMS can help evaluate opportunities to secure favorable material costs while supply conditions remain supportive. We also assess total finished cost to ensure savings in one area do not create inefficiencies elsewhere in the program.

Peak-Season Transportation Outlook

Peak-Season Transportation

WHAT TO KNOW:

Peak season affects more than parcel delivery.

As retail and e-commerce volumes increase, capacity can tighten across parcel, truckload and international transportation networks. Higher shipment volumes, constrained network capacity and increased operating demands all contribute to seasonal cost pressure.

For IMS and many of our clients, parcel shipping through FedEx and UPS represents the greatest exposure, particularly for programs involving larger, heavier or unusually shaped packages that can trigger additional handling or oversized-package charges.

FedEx’s 2026 peak-season surcharges are scheduled to begin October 26, with the highest pricing tier running from November 23 through December 27. UPS typically follows a similar seasonal pattern, with the greatest pressure concentrated between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Other transportation modes may also be affected. International capacity can tighten as retailers build holiday inventory, while truckload capacity may face additional fourth-quarter pressure as retail replenishment and e-commerce compete for available capacity.

IMPACT TO YOU:

Retail programs shipping during peak periods may experience higher transportation costs, particularly when they involve:

• High parcel volumes
• Residential or individual-location deliveries
• Large or unusually shaped cartons
• Heavy packages requiring additional handling
• Time-sensitive shipments concentrated around major holiday periods
• Large store networks where small per-shipment increases multiply across hundreds or thousands of destinations

Packaging can materially affect those costs. A carton that crosses a carrier’s size, weight or handling threshold may trigger additional charges beyond the standard peak-season surcharge.

For programs with timing or fulfillment flexibility, how and when product ships can be as important as the underlying freight rate.

IMS OUTLOOK & RESPONSE:

Additional transportation-cost pressure is expected during peak season, particularly for high-volume parcel programs and shipments with challenging package characteristics.

IMS helps clients reduce exposure by evaluating:

• Shipping schedules and opportunities to avoid the highest-cost periods
• Package dimensions, weight and configuration
• Shipment consolidation and alternate transportation modes
• Destination profiles and fulfillment requirements
• Carrier rate protections and surcharge discounts

When timing allows, shipping before the highest-cost periods—or holding nonessential shipments until afterward—can reduce surcharge exposure. Packaging optimization can help avoid additional-handling or large-package classifications, while consolidation may provide a more efficient alternative to individual parcel shipments.

Understanding transportation requirements before fulfillment decisions are finalized gives IMS more options to optimize timing, packaging, consolidation and mode selection while maintaining required service levels.

The Bottom Line

Market conditions are not moving in the same direction across every category. The opportunities and risks depend on the material, specification, program design and transportation requirements.

• POS paper: Standard stocks remain accessible, while specialty specifications warrant earlier material commitments.
• Corrugated: Moderate cost pressure makes production-capacity planning and total-cost optimization increasingly important.
• Styrene: Favorable supply conditions may create opportunities to secure lower material costs.
• Peak-season transportation: Additional cost pressure is expected, particularly for high-volume parcel programs and shipments with challenging package characteristics.

For marketing, merchandising, retail operations and procurement teams, the common thread is greater visibility across sourcing, production and logistics.

Bringing IMS into the process sooner gives our teams more opportunity to identify constraints, evaluate alternatives, capitalize on favorable market conditions and optimize how programs are produced and delivered.

The more visibility we have into upcoming programs, the more options we have to protect cost, timing and execution.